Indians Sign Bourn. Can They Contend? - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Indians Sign Bourn. Can They Contend? Stuck

Posted on February 12, 2013 at 08:57 AM.

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For the second time this winter, the Cleveland Indians swooped in and signed one of the premium names on the market. This newly found penchant for getting premium names has indeed opened a new era for the Indians as they have spent much of the past two decades scouring the wire for value signings and drafting and developing talent. While they are still very much a draft and develop organization, the Indians chose the right winter to spend some money.

It all started when General Manager Chris Antonetti lured Terry Francona away from ESPN and into the dugout of a team that finished 68-94 and 20 games behind the first place Tigers. Maybe that should have been the signal of it all. Terry Francona is a premier Manager. He is the Manager who ended the famed Curse of the Bambino. And, then he won another title with the Red Sox. He wasn�t going to take just any job. Evidently, there was a plan.

The plan started with the trade of Shin-Soo Choo that brought back Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs. Then, Antonetti hit the free agent market and nabbed Mark Reynolds, Brett Myers, and Matt Capps on cost effective deals. He spent big and signed Nick Swisher, giving the Indians a much upgraded lineup. Days before Spring Training, Antonetti signed veterans Jason Giambi and Daisuke Matsuzaka to Minor League deals with an invitation to Major League camp. The latter two signings represent those low risk, somewhat high reward deals that many clubs try. But, it looked like the Indians were set as they opened the doors to Spring Training.

Michael Bourn was one of the few free agents who just couldn�t find a market. Whether it was because the Twins decided to deal two centerfielders or because BJ Upton signed so quickly with the Braves, the market for Bourn was pretty barren. After the teams with glaring centerfield needs filled their spots, Bourn was really left with teams who didn�t have unlimited resources and who were quite concerned about giving up their first round pick as compensation. Bourn had serious interest from the Mets, who desperately needed an outfielder. But, the Mets had draft pick number 11, which was unprotected. It was unprotected because the Pittsburgh Pirates failed to sign Mark Appel, their first round pick last year. Because of that, they were given a top 10 pick, which bumped the 10th team, the Mets, to number 11.

All of those circumstances allowed the Indians to sign Bourn to a reported four year $48 million deal. The overall money was less than the $75 to $80 million he was originally hoping for, but Bourn gets a four year commitment at a reasonable salary and a vesting option for a fifth season. The Indians� first round pick is protected by virtue of being in the top ten so they will give up their competitive balance pick as compensation for signing Bourn. The reasonable salary and the draft pick created the perfect circumstances for the Indians to sign Bourn to be their center fielder.

Of course, there has always been concern about Michael Bourn and his ability to live up to a long term deal. He will be entering his age 30 season. It is a time when a player begins to get near the end of his peak years. For players like Bourn, there is always a bias about how he will age. Michael Bourn�s game is predicated on speed. His offensive and defensive skills have everything to do with his legs. Players with that skill set are rarely valued. But the Indians have already dealt with this type of player. Kenny Lofton, the former Indians great, worked under just one long-term contract during his 17 year career ( a four year deal with the Indians). There is always a worry that the legs will go and the player will have no value.

It�s a concern, but it is one that historically has proven to be a bit overblown. Kenny Lofton proved that. From age 30 through 35, Lofton hit .285/.371/.417 while averaging 30 stolen bases. From age 36 through 40, Lofton hit .301/.363/.419 with 23 stolen bases per season. There was regression, but it wasn�t as if Lofton was useless and didn�t have speed. And, his defensive metrics remained the same.

Thus far in Bourn�s career, he has not shown any signs of regression or problem with his legs. For the past four seasons, he has averaged 153 games per season while compiling an average season of .280/.348/.378 with 28 doubles, 10 triples, 4 home runs, and 54 stolen bases. Although he walked a career high 70 times last season, he isn�t a patient hitter and did strike out a career high 155 times, while averaging 136 strikeouts since 2009.

While Bourn has been an average to slightly above average hitter, he has proven to be an elite defender. Last season, he posted a UZR of 22.4, by far the best mark in Baseball among centerfielders. He also posted a DRS of 24, also tops in the Major Leagues. Besides a poor 2011 defensive season, Bourn has consistently been one of the elite defenders in the sport. In most seasons, it hasn�t been that close.

For the Indians, Bourn will likely push Drew Stubbs to a fourth outfielder role. Or, Stubbs could play in right field, Swisher at first base, and Reynolds at the designated hitter spot. Or, Stubbs could give Michael Brantley or Bourn a day off against a left handed pitcher. In short, adding Michael Bourn not only gives Terry Francona a premier defensive centerfielder, but his presence also gives him a deeper team with many options. Small to mid market teams don�t often have a deep bench or as many options. Francona has those options. Bourn also gives the Indians an above average outfield defense. Michael Brantley has rated above average by most metrics. Nick Swisher has been average to slightly above average, while Stubbs has been rated above average as well.

With an improved lineup that comes with more flexibility, an improved defense, and a deep bullpen, the Indians are much better heading into Spring Training. But, their rotation is filled with question marks and could undercut their chances of competing. They are relying on Ubaldo Jimenez bouncing back and being a top of the rotation pitcher. Terry Francona has made a couple of trips to visit with Jimenez this winter and Jimenez has worked hard to correct what they believe to be a mechanical flaw. But, there has been nothing over the past two seasons to give any hope that Jimenez can reclaim his number one status. Relying on Justin Masterson and Brett Myers to be anything more than league average is a poor bet. And, then there are the unknowns of Zack Mcallister and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Maybe Trevor Bauer can make a difference, but he still has something to prove.

The Indians� winter will make them a better team. Their offense will produce more than the 13th most runs in the league. They will hit for more power. They�ll certainly strike out more with Reynolds, Bourn, and Swisher in the lineup regularly, but they will be more patient, powerful, and dynamic. That makes for a great improvement and a real reason for Indians fans to be excited as they head into 2013. But, that rotation just has too many questions. Those questions outweigh all of the positives from this winter. Could they be answered? If they are, the Indians can compete in the AL Central. But, there are just so many questions to see that has a realistic possibility.

Sound off OS: Are the Indians contenders for the AL Central?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball stuff at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida

Comments

# 1 willithome @ Feb 12

Yes Yes Yes! They are a contender. Will they win the division??? Maybe. Only time will tell. As an Indians fan the only thing I asked this off season is give us a chance to contend and that is what the front office did. I am so excited for baseball this year cause at the very least the Tribe will be exciting to watch!

# 2 boomhauertjs @ Feb 12

Over the past 2 years, the Indians have spent more time in 1st place than any other AL Central team. They just haven't been able to finish the job. With a better offense and top manager this year, maybe they'll be able to stay in it until the end.

# 3 HustlinOwl @ Feb 12

Tito has management drinking his kool aid

# 4 PVarck31 @ Feb 12

I might be a little biased, but Hell Yeah!

# 5 BBallcoach @ Feb 12

They needed to sign Willie Mays Hayes!!!

In all honesty though, Cleveland is going to be a good under the radar team. They can grab a playoff spot for sure.

# 6 DarkOutFront @ Feb 12

They have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs

# 7 HustlinOwl @ Feb 13

how many strikeouts between Stubbs, Bourn and Reynolds over/under 400?

# 8 Gary Armida @ Feb 13

Over....comfortably.

# 9 BrandH @ Feb 14

Pretty good shot at making the playoffs. HAHAHAHA. They have to have a better record than these teams to even think about the playoffs. Tigers (to win division), Yankees, Jays, Rays, Rangers, Angels and maybe the Red Sox (to win wild card. Not gonna happen little Tribe Fans. On the bright side maybe they will collapse in August this year instead of July.